The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Should we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro area
Recent work has found that, without the benefit of hindsight, it can prove difficult for policy-makers to pin down accurately the current position of the output gap; real-time estimates are unreliable. However, attention primarily has focused on output gap point estimates alone. But point forecasts are better seen as the central points of ranges of uncertainty; therefore some revision to real-t...
متن کاملShould we be surprised by the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Eurozone
Output gap estimates calculated in real-time are known to be often unreliable. Recent work has found that, without the benefit of hindsight, it can prove difficult for policy-makers to pin down accurately the current position of the output gap. However, attention primarily has focussed on output gap point estimates alone. This paper considers output gap estimates and their uncertainty more gene...
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I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...
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an adaptive input-output linearization method for general nonlinear systems is developed without using states of the system. another key feature of this structure is the fact that, it does not need model of the system. in this scheme, neurolinearizer has few weights, so it is practical in adaptive situations. online training of neurolinearizer is compared to model predictive recurrent training...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Review of Economics and Statistics
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0034-6535,1530-9142
DOI: 10.1162/003465302760556422